Numerator Revenue: An Expected $130M in 2018, Roughly 12 Acquisitions, One Sales Force

Dennis Moore is not the founder of Numerator, and he tells you so in the first ten minutes. “The company is really a concatenation of about 12 different acquisitions,” he said on the November 2018 tape. “I’m sort of the PE CEO of the accumulated companies.” What the private-equity owners had put together was a panel of Americans sending in their shopping receipts (about 300,000 people, Moore said at the start, and 400,000 later in the same conversation), about one out of every 500 grocery receipts in the country, more than 500 million collected in the panel business’s four years, and customers such as Procter & Gamble, Coke and Nestlé who needed to see where their sales actually went. Moore’s revenue figure was a forecast, not a closed year: the combined companies were, he said, “probably gonna hit about 130,000,000 of revenue this year.” A year earlier, in November 2017, they were “just over a 100.” Nathan’s recap turned the forecast into “about to pass a $130,000,000 in ARR”; Moore himself never said ARR or run rate.

That is the tape’s revenue story, and it stops in 2018. The latest sourced figure is much later and covers a bigger business: on a lender call on August 20, 2026, Numerator’s CFO, Regan Garrett, said the company “generated $682 million of revenue in 2025,” a total that includes Worldpanel, the Kantar panel business Numerator took over in 2025. The last section dates what happened in between.

The product: seeing the other guy’s cards

Moore, who studied statistics at Michigan and admitted his twelve-month poker record was “probably negative something,” reached for a poker analogy anyway, and it is the clearest description of the product on the tape.

A retailer knows a lot about who shops in their store … but they don’t know what those people buy when they’re in another store … That’s my poker analogy. It’s like you don’t know what the other guy’s holding.

Dennis Moore, then CEO of Numerator, November 2018

That gap was his pitch against the incumbents. CPG companies “traditionally rely on Nielsen, which is a company I worked at for a long time, IRI,” he said, and as buying spread across stores and online, “there are new things in the market that aren’t being well measured and we’re measuring them better and that’s kind of our pitch.”

The panel was built on consent and payment, a point Moore stressed: shoppers “know they are signing up to send us their receipts,” and one of the two apps donates to schools every time someone uploads a receipt, $750,000 in the year before the interview. Nathan’s take on tape: if Facebook paid users a few cents a month for their data, “we wouldn’t have all these issues we’re having now.”

Numerator’s revenue in 2018: the numbers under the roll-up

Moore’s average customer was a guess, and he said so: “Per year is probably high 5 figures, probably like 75. I’m guessing a little bit.” The guess runs high against his other numbers. About $130 million expected across more than 2,000 customers comes to at most about $65,000 a customer, and he also said “we have lots of clients that spend 20,000, 30,000, 40,000, $50,000 a year with us.” Read the $75,000 as the rough figure he called it. About 20% of revenue was professional services (“somewhere in the order of 20% of our revenue is probably services”), staffed at “like one person’s worth of service for every million dollars of stuff you buy from us.”

Retention took two passes. Moore first put his net retention rate “just shy of 90 so in the mid to upper 80s,” then corrected the basis: “I set price increases aside … about 10% of my base, I’m losing, but then of the 90 that stays, I’m expanding that.” That is roughly 90% gross revenue retention, or about 10% annual revenue churn. On expansion, he said a new customer at $100,000 a year would grow to “somewhere like one thirty” in year two on average, and called it “a little bit lumpy,” because some services double or triple a client’s spend. Nathan then did the sum himself: lose 10%, expand 30%, “so net, you’re 120 net revenue retention on that cohort.” Moore answered “Correct.” The 120% is the host’s arithmetic, accepted in one word; Moore never gave a net figure of his own on that basis. He said churn ran higher than he wished in one line, data scraped off the web, “sort of price information,” where “there’s just a lot of people doing that space right now.”

Price increases, Moore said, ride on product improvements, and the panel was his example. When the panel business was acquired “a little over a year ago,” it had 400,000 people in the panel and drew a representative sample of 75,000 from them; Numerator had taken the sample to 100,000 and planned to make it 125,000 “in the next year.” That 400,000 is the second panel count on the tape. At the start Moore said “about 300,000 people in The United States” send in their receipts; when Nathan asked “You said this is across 400,000 users?” he answered “Correct.” The tape does not reconcile the two.

Acquisition spending was deliberately unheroic. Nathan cited Ping Identity, another Vista company, paying “about a dollar 20 to get a new dollar in ARR.” Moore’s answer: “Our total cost of sales and marketing is about 25% of our total revenue,” and “we’re not in a situation where we’re spending more than the first year’s revenue just to acquire a customer.” Nathan restated that as at most a dollar of CAC for each new dollar of ARR, under a twelve-month payback, and Moore said “Correct. You got it.” His reason was deal size: with lots of clients at $20,000 to $50,000 a year, “it’s not as if these are 7 figure deals that you would spend, you know, an enormous amount of money to win.”

What Vista actually changed

Asked what changed first when Vista Equity Partners took over in spring 2017, Moore gave the least romantic and most useful answer in the private-equity playbook:

1. One system of record. The roll-up was running “six instances of Salesforce” and “three different accounting systems.” Close to six months of work put quote, order and bookings “all in one system.”
2. One sales force. Reps who arrived selling the product of whichever acquired company they came from were realigned into a single go-to-market carrying the whole bag, letting the differentiated products give “a little bit of lift” to the commoditized ones. The products were “somewhat easier to integrate”; the sales forces “were further behind, so we took on the sales force first.”

Numerator after the interview: Kantar, Bain Capital and Worldpanel

The interview was recorded in November 2018. In the timeline below, the 2014, 2016, 2017 and November 2018 entries are Moore’s account on the tape. The rest come from company releases, an archived company page, press reports and a lender call, and none of them was said in the interview.

• 2014 The panel business starts: “that business started in 2014,” Moore said. It is a subset of Numerator, not the year Numerator was founded.
• Summer 2016 Moore joins under the previous private-equity owner.
• Spring 2017 Vista Equity Partners buys the group. Was the price public? “No. It was not.” The big panel acquisition follows shortly after.
• Oct 4, 2018 Market Track and InfoScout announce they “will unite under the new brand Numerator,” in a release quoting “Dennis Moore, CEO of Numerator.”
• Nov 2018 The interview: about $130M of revenue expected for 2018, against just over $100M a year earlier.
• Jul 2019 Numerator’s team page lists Eric Belcher as chief executive officer and Moore as “President, Panel Solutions.”
• Apr 19, 2021 Kantar announces “a definitive agreement with Vista Equity Partners to acquire Numerator.” The release gives no price.
• Jul 6, 2021 Research Live reports the deal completed: “The terms of the deal have not been disclosed, but it is believed to be worth just under $1.5bn.”
• 2025 Numerator acquires Kantar’s Worldpanel business and rebrands it Worldpanel by Numerator, according to Numerator’s ownership page.
• Aug 20, 2026 Numerator’s CFO tells lenders the combined business “generated $682 million of revenue in 2025.”

The two sides now tell the 2021 deal differently. Kantar’s 2021 release has Kantar agreeing with Vista “to acquire Numerator.” Numerator’s ownership page today says it “was acquired from Vista Equity Partners in 2021 in a transaction led by Bain Capital” and “is not owned or operated by Kantar.” Kantar’s group CFO, Michael Uzielli, squared the two on the August 2026 lender call: Kantar itself has belonged to Bain Capital for about seven years (“over the past 7 years or so since our acquisition by Bain Capital”), and Numerator and Kantar now run as “two standalone entities,” “under one financing structure.” Nobody published a price. The $1.5 billion is Research Live’s estimate of an undisclosed figure, and GetLatka’s profile records no price for the deal. The only sale on the tape is Vista’s, and Moore said its price was not public.

The $682 million does not compare directly with Moore’s $130 million: it covers Numerator plus Worldpanel. On the same call Garrett put Numerator’s own first-half 2026 revenue, without Worldpanel, at $150 million, “up 9% year-over-year.” Numerator’s current figures are on its GetLatka profile, and the full 2018 conversation, with its transcript, is on its interview page.

Moore told Nathan he would turn 50 that December. Asked what he wished his 20-year-old self knew, the PE CEO answered: “I wish my 20 year old self knew more about starting companies and smaller ventures. … I kinda thought you went to school, you got a job at a big company, and that’s kinda how [the] world worked, and it took me until I was 47 years old to discover private equity in smaller companies.” Nathan’s recap boiled it down: “Get in the starting the company game sooner.”

Correction, October 2026: an earlier version of this post said Numerator “hit” $130M of revenue and called the 2021 sale a “$1.5B exit.” On the tape the $130M is Moore’s forecast for 2018, and the 2021 price was never disclosed; $1.5B is a press estimate for a 2021 deal the interview never discussed. The earlier version also presented Nathan’s 120% retention arithmetic as the real shape of the business and put a line from Nathan’s recap in Moore’s mouth.